Interactively Model the Cost Curve
What This Explorer Shows
This chart visualizes how CO₂ removal costs fall as we deploy more capacity and unlock innovation. It assumes a baseline cost of $150 per ton at 1 Gt/year, then applies your chosen learning rate and capacity to simulate future affordability.
What Do These Terms Mean?
Learning Rate (%)
The percentage by which costs decline each time total capacity doubles. For example, a 20% rate means costs drop 20% when capacity goes from 1 to 2 Gt/year, another 20% drop from 2 to 4 Gt/year, etc.
Cumulative Capacity (Gt CO₂/year)
The global annual removal capacity installed. Today’s capacity is around 0.01–0.05 Gt/year; reaching over 5 Gt/year by mid-century is critical for net-zero. As capacity scales, we capture cost savings through learning-by-doing.
Technologies Behind the Curve
- Direct Air Capture (DAC): Machines that chemically pull CO₂ from air, powered by clean energy.
- Bioenergy + Carbon Capture (BECCS): Capturing emissions from biomass combustion and storing underground.
- Enhanced Weathering: Spreading crushed minerals to speed natural CO₂ mineralization.
- Ocean-based Removal: From kelp forests to alkalinity enhancement in seawater.
Why This Matters
Use this tool to understand how investment and scale drive affordability, to brief stakeholders, and to compare pathways for achieving gigaton-scale carbon removal economically.